Pathways to victory 2022 review

We did a series of articles on three of the well regarded entries. It’s time to see how we did. Let’s jump right in!

Italy

What we said: If Brividi is in the top 5 after the jury vote, they have a good shot at victory.

What happened:  Mahmood and Blanco were 7th with juries on 158 points. They were 8th with televoters, 110 points.

Bloc element: not applicable.

Final result: Italy ended up in sixth place, 268 points. This is the best performing host entry since 2016, when Sweden’s Mans Frans finished fifth with If I Were Sorry.

Source: YouTube/Eurovision Song Contest

Sweden

What we said: for Hold Me Closer to have a good chance at victory Sweden needs to be very highly scored by juries—probably in the top three after the jury scores come in.

What happened: Cornelia Jakobs did indeed make the jury top 3: Hold Me Closer was second with juries, on 258 points. However, Sweden’s sixth place with televoters—on a highly respectable 180 televote points—fell short.

Bloc element: In the face of a televote juggernaut, Sweden got zero douze points from televoters in the Grand Final. However Scandinavian bloc members were still generous. Denmark (10 points), Norway (8), Finland (8), Iceland (8) for 34 out of a potential 48 points. Juries were a bit more generous: Iceland and Finland both gave Sweden douze points, Norway 8 points and Denmark 7. That’s a total 41 out of 48 potential points.

Final result: Hold Me Closer finished in fourth place, with 438 points.

Source: YouTube/Eurovision Song Contest

Ukraine

What we said:  If Ukraine are in the top five after the jury results come in, regardless of the gap, they have an excellent shot at victory. And we listed countries with significant number of Ukrainian asylum seekers whom, combined with a lot of empathy, meant a potential record televote score.

What happened: Juries had Ukraine in fourth place on 192 points. As predicted the voting public had Stefania first. The 439 points is a new record, which is all the more remarkable, since this was a 40 entry year: if we ever have another year with 43 entries (2011 being an example), that builds in a 36 point televote buffer compared to 2022.

Bloc element: Not only is Ukraine one of the most productive participants in the Russophone bloc, with the absence of Russia, we would expect Ukraine to top this bloc regards of the conflict war. Belarus’ absence means this is a somewhat reduced bloc.

They did get top marks from the televotes in Azerbaijan, Israel, Georgia, Moldova, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Cyprus, but the Armenians awarded Kalush Orchestra “only” 10 points. Bearing in mind that the Georgian and Azerbaijani jury scores were annulled and replaced (both claim to have had Ukraine first), Lithuania Latvia and Moldova had Ukraine first: Israel and Cyprus awarded them 7 points, while Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia gave them 6 each. Out of a potential 96 jury points, Stefania still received 68 “adjusted” jury points.

Final result:  Kalush Orchestra won with 631 points. Ukraine was also the closest to doubling their semi-final score in the Grand Final.

Source: YouTube/Kalush Orchestra