Drill down: 2022 Grand Final Performance order

Mere moments about the EBU released the Grand Final draw performance order:

  1. Czech Republic: We Are Domi – Lights Off
  2. Romania: WRS – Llámame
  3. Portugal: MARO – Saudade, Saudade
  4. Finland: The Rasmus – Jezebel
  5. Switzerland: Marius Bear – Boys Do Cry
  6. France: Alvan & Ahez – Fulenn
  7. Norway: Subwoolfer – Give That Wolf A Banana
  8. Armenia: Rosa Linn – Snap
  9. Italy: Mahmood & Blanco – Brividi
  10. Spain: Chanel – SloMo
  11. Netherlands: S10 – De Diepte
  12. Ukraine: Kalush Orchestra – Stefania
  13. Germany: Malik Harris – Rockstars
  14. Lithuania: Monika Liu – Sentimentai
  15. Azerbaijan: Nadir Rustamli – Fade To Black
  16. Belgium: Jérémie Makiese – Miss You
  17. Greece: Amanda Georgiadi Tenfjord – Die Together
  18. Iceland: Systur – Með Hækkandi Sól
  19. Moldova: Zdob şi Zdub & Advahov Brothers – Trenulețul
  20. Sweden: Cornelia Jakobs – Hold Me Closer
  21. Australia: Sheldon Riley – Not The Same
  22. United Kingdom: Sam Ryder – SPACE MAN
  23. Poland: Ochman – River
  24. Serbia: Konstrakta – In Corpore Sano
  25. Estonia: Stefan – Hope

Let’s drill down, as is our wont.

Opening/Closing

Once again a banger of a semi-final closer becomes a banger of a semi-final opener. Like IMRI’s I Feel Alive in 2017, Czechia’s We Are Domi will have no time to rest their voices before the all-important Jury Rehearsal later today. IMRI’s voice was struggling on Friday and gone on Saturday, which led to jury score of 34 and televote score of 5 (and final ranking of 23rd). Hopefully Where Are You Now? will fare much better. In 2018 Ukraine’s Mélovin fared a bit better facing the same challenge. His 119 televote points put him 7th with the public: however, serious jury dislike (last place and 11 points) meant 17th overall.

Stefan’s Hope means Estonia closes a Grand Final for the first time. It’s difficult to discern too much from this slot: some entries have done poorly (Ireland 2013; Spain, 2021; San Marino 2021), while others have done just OK (France, 2017). But some–ok, Italy–have done very well closing, particularly with the televote: their 2015 and 2018 entries were both top three with televoters and top 5 overall.

The Graveyards

Romania’s WRS should embrace qualification as their achievement, given their performing second. So too should the songs immediately thereafter after: Portugal, Finland and Switzerland.

We’re not certain where an actual ad break will appear, but Germany is the last of the entries who drew “first half”. Not massive expectations, especially since the odds-on favourites Ukraine are performing right before them.

Prime Time

In recent years songs that have been top three in their semi-final have mostly been put somewhere 8-10th. However this year Italy randomly drew slot 9. So right Italy we have:

Expect perhaps two of these in the top 5 on Saturday night.

For the second half, it’s harder. 17-19 features Greece, Iceland and Moldova (we were sure Moldova were closing). 18 is the best of three excellent slots. Except this half of the draw has a range of entries with potential paths to a great result. Having Sweden right after Moldova is a real head scratcher.

Then you get:

Aside from the usual compare/contrast/variety/build up consideration, it might be that some of these entries (Australia, Serbia) rocked their televote or the jury vote midweek.

Who will win

No idea, in other words. But I think the likeliest top 10 are:

  1. Ukraine
  2. Sweden
  3. UK
  4. Italy
  5. Spain
  6. Moldova
  7. France
  8. Norway
  9. Portugal
  10. Armenia

In that order. 🙂

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