2020 #Eurovision Semi-Final Qualifiers: the @58points Cheap-n-Cheerful Method

Back in 2019 we trialled a qualifier prediction method designed for the lazy. As described in an earlier article:

What emerges quickly is that entries ranked in the top 5 of either the jury or televote rankings of their semi-final qualifies for that year’s Grand Final.  

We then gave it a go for 2019. Turns out it works…if you get your lists of jury and televote top five correct (in terms of the five entries, not their order within each top five list.

As I did not apply for accreditation this year, I have not been watching the rehearsal streams. I am using fan sites (like these folks and this fella) and the official video clips for my evaluations.

Semi-Final One

This year’s first semi-final only has 16 entries. With 10 qualifiers from each semi-final, that means 63 per cent of the songs will get through. Which also means the six entries that are left behind will feel the burn. Many pundits also think this semi-final is more competitive than the next.  Germany, Italy and the Netherlands are also voting on Monday (juries) and Tuesday (public).

Here’s my best guestimate of the top SIX for each:

Jury RankDelegation Public RankDelegation
1Malta 1Russia
2Ireland 2Croatia
3Russia 3Malta
4Lithuania 4Lithuania
5Ukraine 5Ukraine
6Sweden 6Ireland

Why top six? The marginal band (4/5/6/7) in each ranking are sometimes closely clustered together, in terms of actual points received.  

So my prediction for the qualifiers using this method are Malta, Ireland, Russia, Lithuania, Ukraine, and Croatia.

That leaves four spots. Sweden will probably be the highest ranked Scandi entry, so let’s add them. Assuming more than one female banger will get through I would give Cyprus the edge over Israel.

I will stop there. 🙂

Semi-Final Two

This year’s second semi-final has 17 entries. With 10 qualifiers from each semi-final, that means 59 per cent of the songs will get through: just over half. France, Spain and the United Kingdom are also voting on Wednesday (juries) and Thursday (public).

Here’s my best guestimate of the top SIX for each:

Jury RankDelegation Public RankDelegation
1Switzerland 1Iceland
2Iceland 2Bulgaria
3Bulgaria 3Albania
4Latvia 4Serbia
5Portugal 5Greece
6Austria 6San Marino

My prediction for the qualifiers using this method are Iceland, Switzerland, Bulgaria, Latvia, Portugal, Albania, Serbia, and Greece.

See you on Friday

On Friday I will compare my predictions with the actual results. It is worth mentioning that in 2019 I got the lists fairly right—except which lists entries ended up in the top five.  😉

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